‘Moana 2’, ‘Gladiator 2’ and ‘Wicked’ Expected to Make the Biggest Thanksgiving Weekend in Box Office History

With “Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II” on the lineup, this Thanksgiving holiday is shaping up to be a record-breaking one for the box office, with domestic revenue expected to soar past $300 million over the five-day period.

“Gladiator II,” “Wicked,” and “Moana 2” are set to bring something for everyone to theaters this Thanksgiving, according to one studio exec. “When there’s a great variety, the business thrives.” These three films are expected to fuel the biggest Thanksgiving box office ever, providing a bright spot in a year slowed by labor strikes and delays from the pandemic.

Thanksgiving 2018 holds the current record for the five-day period, bringing in $315.6 million thanks to hits like “Ralph Breaks the Internet” and “Creed II.” This year, experts believe that the record will fall.

“Moana 2,” set to release Wednesday, Nov. 27, is projected to earn between $125 million and $150 million in its first five days, possibly even more. If those numbers hold, it will break records for a Thanksgiving debut. The first “Moana” grossed $82.1 million in 2016 and remains popular, ranking as the most-streamed film in 2023.

“Wicked,” based on the hit Broadway musical, will hit theaters Friday, Nov. 22, to avoid overlapping too much with “Moana 2.” Early projections suggest it will earn $85 million or more in its opening weekend, with some predicting it could top $100 million.

“Gladiator II,” opening the same day, is expected to bring in at least $65 million. Paramount has launched an aggressive marketing campaign for the film, dropping its final trailer in a worldwide push that reached 300 million viewers.

While some may worry about three major films opening so close together, history shows that this strategy can work during peak seasons like Thanksgiving or summer. Each film targets a slightly different audience: “Gladiator II” appeals to men but has drawn interest from women as well, “Wicked” is expected to bring in female audiences (and their dates), and “Moana 2” is the go-to family film.

Even if Thanksgiving doesn’t close the gap in year-over-year box office revenue, it could help narrow it. Early projections suggest that 2024’s domestic revenue will total $8.3 billion to $8.6 billion, shrinking the gap to 6-9%.

Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore says this Thanksgiving could be one of the most crucial in box office history. “This lineup is giving moviegoers exactly what they’ve been waiting for a mix of exciting films to reignite the magic of going to the movies.”

What do you think? Will we see a record-breaking box office for Thanksgiving this year? Share your predictions in the comments below.

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